This Is Us Mid-Season Finale Recap: Ho, Ho... Oh No! 

In case you’re keeping score at home, that’s misery: 2, happy holidays: 0 in the

The series’ fall finale spends most of the hour lulling us into a false sense that all will indeed be merry and bright for the Pearsons this Christmas. Old hurts will be smoothed over. New loves will bloom like poinsettias. Painful inevitabilities will seem far-off and unimportant when bathed in the warm glow of familial love.

After all, it’s Dec. 24 and, as Rebecca reminds us throughout the episode, “Nothing bad happens on Christmas Eve.” And while that certainly holds true in the flashbacks — when two successful surgeries make the family’s holiday that much more meaningful — it’s the coldest of comforts when someone at the Pearson Christmas shindig falls suddenly and gravely ill.

This Is Us Casts The Walking Dead‘s Alexandra Breckenridge as Pearson Pal

A CHANGE OF CHRISTMAS PLANS | On a back-in-the-day Christmas Eve, we watch Jack and Rebecca put some presents under the tree while Kate complains that her belly hurts. Rebecca is sure the pain is the result of overindulging in cookies, but it turns out that the kiddo’s got appendicitis and needs immediate surgery.

The kids are understandably worried — especially poor Kevin — and to assuage their fear, Rebecca does a bit of mom improvisation. She breaks a sprig off one of the hospital Christmas trees and says it’s covered in holiday magic. Then she puts it in Kate’s hand and promises that “Nothing bad ever happens on Christmas Eve.” Still, Kevin doesn’t look comforted, and he holds onto his twin’s gurney until the very last moment she’s wheeled into the operating room.

While Rebecca is getting snacks from the vending machine and preparing to settle in for a long wait, she hears a familiar voice: It’s Dr. K, the obstetrician who delivered Kevin and Kate in the series premiere. But he’s a patient this time: A car crash left him with a slow hemorrhage between his heart and his lung, he explains, and there’s a chance he might not survive the surgery necessary to repair the damage.

ALL’S WELL THAT ENDS WELL | When Rebecca hears that the doc’s family is all out of state, she decides that she, Jack and the boys will serve as his relatives for the evening. The doctor meets Randall, who buys him a snow globe in the gift shop and thanks him for suggesting that the Pearsons adopt him all those years ago. “The only thing I did that day was nudge a man in a direction he already wanted to go,” the avuncular OB says, adding that Randall should try to pay his parents’ kindness forward someday.

Meanwhile, Kevin is wandering around the place, worried about his sister and asking hospital staff about the comparative benefits of Christianity and Judaism. (Side note: This is, in no way, an exaggeration. For the record, the nurse standing near the menorah and nativity scene he’s contemplating answers, “They all get the job done just fine.” It doesn’t seem to make him feel any better.)

By the end of the night, both Kate and Dr. K come through surgery OK. And Rebecca and Jack, sitting in uncomfortable chairs in the doc’s hospital room while the boys sleep on their laps, exchange a relieved smile.

HELLO, LOVER | I hope you enjoyed that heartwarming tale, because the present-day Pearson holiday saga is less

. Let’s start with William. Randall’s biodad speaks at a 12-step meeting, thanking everyone there for helping him get to the good place he’s at today. “I did not expect God’s grace, but now I had to open myself to the pain of it to feel the joy of it,” he says. But when a man sitting a few rows behind him talks next, it quickly becomes clear that he’s throwing major shade William’s way.

The man’s name is Jesse, he’s played by Denis O’Hare, and he’s the boyfriend on whom William ghosted when Randall came calling. William kinda knew that his flame would be at the meeting; “I came here tonight to tell you I’m sorry,” he says, adding that he wanted to spare Jesse the pain of having to watch his terminal illness play out. “William Hill, I loved you, and you left,” Jesse replies. “Now, I’d like you to spend whatever time you have left remaining together. Would you?”

Hairspray Live! Soundtrack: 6 Biggest Surprises From the NBC Cast Recording

‘THE BOAT IS SADNESS’ | At Randall’s company’s holiday party, Beth is a little incensed to learn that her husband bought a boat from one of his co-workers. He maintains it’s just a boat, but she knows he’s bummed about his fight with Rebecca and the fact that most of his family has cancelled on coming for Christmas. “This boat is not a boat, Randall. This boat is sadness,” Beth shoots back, and I once again marvel at Susan Kelechi Watson’s timing. While Randall’s boss makes a big show of throwing everyone’s bonus checks in the air and letting them flutter to the floor (question for the fancy readers who work in finance: Is this normal? It does not seem normal.), Beth exhorts her husband to find his colleague, Andy, and return the seafaring vessel.

When Randall locates Andy on the roof at the party, it’s quickly evident that the other man is seriously considering jumping to his death. The short version: Andy banged someone else who works at the firm; when his wife found out, she filed for divorce. And he’s made some risky trades that didn’t pay off this year, meaning he’s lost a lot of money for a bunch of people. As he sadly tells Randall, who tentatively approaches him, his life is “broken. I broke it. For no reason.”

Randall tries to get his bereft co-worker to see that he has an obligation to his daughter, Chloe, to live long enough for her to forgive him for his transgressions. “If you love Chloe hard, she will love you back. That’s the way kids work,” Randall says, tears in his eyes. “And she will forgive you, Andy, but not if she can’t… it is your job as her father to stay here until she is ready.”

Just then, Beth enters the scene and can’t figure out why her normally chill husband is suddenly yelling at her to leave them alone and go back into the party. When Randall turns back to Andy, he’s gone — and Randall (and I) think that he jumped. But then Randall sees Andy walking among the other employees inside, and he nearly passes out with relief, hugging Beth close and saying he wants to go home to their daughters.

VIDEOSEmerald City Trailer: The Witches of Oz Wage War in New NBC Drama

FESTIVAL OF SLIGHTS | Olivia hasn’t been seen since her visit to Kevin’s cabin, which means the play is about to be cancelled. I’m sorry, did I miss the episode where we found out she’s filthy stinking rich and can just up and leave a paying gig? Because there are SO many stage actors in that situation in New York City. Sloane, the playwright Kevin slept with last episode, is mad about the whole situation; as retribution, she demands that Kevin come to Hanukkah dinner with her disapproving family, because she kinda told them she was dating The Manny. He’s actually fine with it, because “We did that storyline twice on the show.” (Heh.)

So Kevin goes home with her and is his charming-if-slightly-dim self; my favorite part of the dinner is how engaged he is while Slone tells the kids the story behind the holiday. He’s also super inspired by the Maccabees, because when she’s done, he’s got an idea: “Let’s put this play on ourselves!” He thinks she should take Olivia’s part, and she only resists for a few moments before happily agreeing. They hug. “This actually happened once on

,” he says, “but you’ve gotta be careful, because we were engaged by the end of Season 2.”

DWTS Veteran Derek Hough Jumps to NBC’s World of Dance as a Judge

THOSE BARIATRIC BLUES | Rebecca accompanies Kate to see the doctor about her stomach-reduction surgery, but she’s a little judgey about both the procedure (which she deems too dangerous) and Kate’s revelation that she’s been on Prozac (“I’m not

Rebecca breaks the uncomfortable silence in the car on the way home. “Did I do this to you?” she asks, and I give Mandy Moore a lot of credit for all the guilt, disappointment and sadness she stuffs into those six words. “I don’t know,” Kate says, equally hurt. She explains that she feels alone in her decision to go under the knife. “I want one person to tell me that I’m doing the right thing.” I never thought I’d say this, but thank GOD for Miguel, whose doltishness while setting up the Christmas lights on the lawn breaks the tension in the scene.

THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS? | When Randall and Beth return home, they plan on a quiet night with the girls before Santa comes. But then Kevin and Sloane stop by, and so do Miguel, Kate and Rebecca and William and Jesse. And then Toby (!) shows up, wearing a fuzzy red hat and making a romantic declaration to a gobsmacked Kate: “I am here to take the first steps in overcoming our insanity. One last time. For both of us. Because it’s Christmas, and because we’re good together.” Personally, I am not down with the guy Kate broke up with suddenly showing up at a family gathering uninvited, but Kate seems enchanted as he explains that he’s back on the diet — “not for you, for me. But also for you.” Pretty soon they’re kissing and sneaking upstairs so he can stir her hot cocoa with his candy cane, if you catch my (snow) drift.

PHOTOSFall TV Winners & Losers 2016: From This Is Us to This Is Just Sad

Downstairs, William and Jesse are cozily messing around on the piano when Randall’s older daughter serves him some figgy realtalk pudding: “Dad, Grandpa’s gay,” Tess says, matter-of-factly. “Or at least, bi.” Randall soaks this in and then makes the same high-pitched laugh he did when he said “What’s happening?!” in the premiere.

Everyone gets along. They sing. They eat. They cavort. They kiss under mistletoe. Yay! God bless us every— wait, what’s going on with Toby? He’s all sweaty and gray-looking, and when he stands up to help Beth clear some dishes from the living room, he collapses. Next thing we know, he’s flatlining on the operating table in a surgical suite.

Hey, all of you Toby-haters? Looks like you might’ve gotten your Christmas wish.

Now it’s your turn. What did you think of the episode? Sound off in the comments!

If you like TVLine, you\'ll LOVE our weekly newsletter. Click here to subscribe.

I like the Big Three but I’m started to get a bit irritated by their need to pile down on Rebecca. No person or parent is perfect and I feel like when something is wrong in their lives Rebecca bares the brunt of it. Kate was so unnecessarily bitchy towards her concerned mother in the doctor office. I’m a grown woman with my own family and still to this day I would never speak to my mother or father in such a off putting tone. I’m starting to believe Rebecca will be this show’s whipping boy. The Big Three on the other hand seem to think Jack hung the moon. No doubt he was a good dad but that doesn’t diminish the role their mother played in raising them to be happy productive people in the world. That at least deserves respect.

William has a lover.Haha. I didn’t see that coming. Dad-Grandpa’s gay. Out of the mouths of babes. Best line ever.

Did Toby have a heart attack mid celebration? Yikes. I guess all the high calorie foods caught up in the worst way possible. I wonder if the show is offing the character.

And one more thing I was slightly confused over. Was Randall really talking to the boat guy trying to stop him from committing suicide? It seemed really random and then his reaction to it was especially confusing. Let’s go home? That scene had to be some whacked out thing in his imagination.

I think Randall’s speech helped boat guy realize he couldn’t kill himself on Christmas Eve for his daughter’s sake. It also helped Randall realize that all people (see Rebecca, William) make mistakes and that in time he too could forgive them.

It’s pretty common to make the parent who died a saint and put all blame on the surviving parent. The boys seemed to have a really good relationship with her, until Randall’s betrayal. And he’s working through that. Kate’s relationship with her mom is more complicated. Kate viewed Rebecca as being super judgmental in the Dr.’s office. While I think Rebecca was just shocked and hurt she didn’t know. Girls relationships with their moms are often more complicated.

The three also seem to carry a bit of resentment that Rebecca married Jack’s best friend.

Agree I definitely think the kids are remembering Jack without flaws, probably because he dies down of illness or an accident. Randall definitely was his mums favourite before learning she lied to him, Jack might not have had favourites but Kate seemed to have gotten along better with him in terms of not getting nagged about her weight.

One thing to consider for Toby’s situation beyond the obesity issue and a possible heart attack is that he just finished being stuck SIX hours in a middle seat of an airplane and could have developed a blood clot.

People hate Toby? How could you hate Toby? He’s funny and sweet and adorable!

Nothing bad happens on Christmas eve. I hope that’s true for Toby.

“Nothing bad ever happens on Christmas Eve”. To have Toby die in such a dramatic way on such a prophetic day would be too much of a downer for a fledgling series…no matter how good it is or how well received it is. Just because the last scene shows Toby flatlining, doesn’t mean he died. It’s Christmas after all and miracles do happen!

I didn’t wish for the dude to die! I just wanted him to go be freakishly jolly, bright, and romantic somewhere off screen.

I didn’t have a problem with Toby showing up uninvited since Kate has been calling him since she got there. He made it clear he was making one more grand romantic gesture. I admire his courage for putting his emotional heart at risk again when she’s crushed it so many times.

Wow, everything happened in this episode and we’re only half-way through the season. I think Toby will be brought back; I don’t think they’d bury his death among so much action.

Andy being William from Westworld really threw me off!

Yes!! I was like “it’s William!” My husband said his almost suicide is what made him go to westworld. Lol

Two surprises this week: didn’t see the William-is-gay story or the Toby-collapses (dies?) twist. I predict Toby lives and it will change Kate’s surgical decision because she’ll help him recover. Beth is quickly becoming a favorite character! She handles Randall perfectly. Loved the Hanukkah dinnner and storyline with Kevin/Sloane even if I have a hard time believing Olivia has disappeared for a month and the play’s producers haven’t done anything about it. Glad Dr. K survived, still expecting a guest-actor Emmy nom for Gerald McRaney next year!

Yes, there should at least be a nomination for Gerald McRaney and a nomination for the show itself because it’s been good on a consistent basis, but tonight it slayed me.

For a show being written by people in show business, they sure make a lot of mistakes regarding show business. Like Kevin would’ve known about his Manny replacement long before seeing the advertisement. And there are so many starving actors in New York they would’ve easily filled Olivia’s spot. After all, Kevin is the name draw now.

I presumed that because he mentioned being wedged in a middle seat for 6 hours more than once that Toby got a blood clot in his leg that ended up in his lung and doing him in. I hope they let us know since he was not in any of the trailer.

Let’s hope it’s not past midnight & it’s not Christmas yet. A+ Candy Cane/Hot Cocoa metaphor.

A, Toby could die & Kate could be pregnant or not

B, Toby could live & Kate could be pregnant or not

Either way Kate this could send Kate in a downward spiral or an upward spiral.

Loved the whole episode & everyones challenge/story this part of the season.Looking forward to see the rest of the season after Christmas.

Please don’t kill Toby! Let him live for Kate’s sake, if he dies she will downward spiral bad! She has enough insecurities, she deserves some happiness. I liked the William twist. I do think they are hard on Rebecca, but no one is perfect. I hope Kevin and the director develop an actual relationship, they are cute together.

I refuse to believe they’re killing Toby off. That would be a terrible amount of baggage for Kate, to think he died because he came all that way to see her and then they had sex. Like, breakup, stress, airplane, more stress, sex, even more stress… Boom! Heart attack and it’s all her fault. Nooooooooo!

So Jack is dead. William will die before long. Toby is probably dead because that’s a more compelling arc for Kate than just her weight struggles… Meanwhile Miguel -and his gout!- is still alive and kicking! Ugh why do the best ones go first?

Toby can’t die. Nothing bad happens on Christmas Eve. I really hope he doesn’t.

Shocked about Toby, disheartened by the snark here. I am a fan of these two, including the tough decisions to walk away from each ither, at least for a while. Thanks for FINALLY making a plus size woman a real person and not a puppet!

Thanks for the difficult moments between Kate and Rebecca; nobody outside of a mother-daughter dance of body image, diet, ideals for women knows how tricky this can be. Keep them talking. Who knows how many mother’s and daughters it will help communicate.

This colorful bunch has to be the poster child for a diversified and dysfunctional unit if I have ever seen one. I absolutely love it. This is a very real family, unlike any that I have ever seen on television but have lived in my own life. I absolutely love it because of that. Best show in years.

I loved Toby and Kate together! He was so funny and very good for her!

I’m so happy to see #SterlingKBrown & #RyanMichelleBathe #ArmyWives #Roland

So sad :( to see Toby go. Best show ever this year!

The Voice Top 8 Results Recap: Did the Right Four Singers Make the Finale?

Supernatural Boss: Negan Has Not Killed a John Winchester Comeback

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. Fall Finale Recap: Double Jeopardy

1Secrets and Lies EP Expands on Finale Cliffhanger, Shares Season 3…213

2The Voice Top 8 Performance Recap: They\'re a Little Unsteady124

3The Voice Top 8 Results Recap: Did the Right Four Singers Make the…93

4Gilmore Girls Revival: [Spoiler] Was Originally a \'Much Bigger Deal\'77

5Once Upon a Time Recap: Emma\'s Killer Is Revealed, Plus [Spoiler]…76

Chicago Fire EP Talks Surprise \'Dawsey\' Milestone…